E-mini trading advisory for Apr. 1

Home Prices decline by record 19%, Chicago PMI at 31.4, lower than expected and Consumer Confidence remains near its historic low. Markets closed higher posting their best monthly advance in many years.

ECONOMIC DATA

8:15 AM ADP Employment

10:00 AM Construction Spending

10:00 AM ISM Index

10:00 AM Pending Home Sales

10:35 AM Crude Inventories

2:00 PM Auto Sales

2:00 PM Truck Sales

YESTERDAY’S MARKET

A positive nightly session gave way to a strong opening, the E-mini SP started the session at 791.75 from where it traded in a narrow range during the first minutes of the session. Unable to break above the 793.75 Globex high, the index pulled back to 787.00 and bounced to 789.75. Once the Consumer Confidence data get released the SP pulled back to 786.50 where buyers stepped in pushing the index up to 792.25. After failing to break the early highs, the SP pulled back to 787.75 and bounced back once more maintaining a narrow trading sideways pattern that finally pushed the SP to a new high at 794.75. As the Russell failed to cooperate, the SP reached 795.50. With mild pullbacks and low trading volumes, the SP continued to post new highs, this time at 796.50. As the end of month buying pressure continued to act well, the Russell joined the uptrend and the SP pushed slowly higher to 800.00. With the end of quarter bullish bias acting well, the markets continue to inch higher, the SP reached 807.00 from where it pulled back to 801.50, bounced back to 804.50 and pushed down to 799.00, bounced a few points and backed off strongly to 792.25, pushed higher to 798.00 and pulled back to 791.75 into the close. For the day the SP added 6.25 points and settled at 790.50, the Nasdaq closed higher by 4.75 points at 1227.50 and the Russell gained 3.20 points closing the session at 418.00. The Dow recovered 79 points ending the session at 7601.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday expected rally managed to scare some short traders, but the weakness during the last hour of the session, once the high at 807.00 on the SP was reached has placed the indexes once more on a neutral position, some kind of consolidation waiting for the next strong move.

The last few days of the past week, when the markets struggle to move up, Monday’s sell off, and yesterday’s late sell off and weak close, do not picture a bullish scenario. The way the SP will resolve the current rally will be seen only by the end of the week, the key for lower prices to come, seems to be Monday’s night low at 784.00 on the SP and 7477 on the Dow futures, but a sell off attempt that fails to gain momentum, could give way to a strong rally next week.

Meanwhile for Wednesday’s trading session, the markets will have to hold above the levels I just mentioned, with yesterday’s close below fair value, the futures contracts may be pointing for a lower opening.

There is a bunch of economic data to get released during tomorrow’s session, before the opening, the ADP Employment data which measures the private job market, later in the session, last data on the housing markets and the ISM index will highly impact the trading session. The weak close, calls to be a seller on the bounces, all the time that the 804.50 area on the SP remains intact.

Take into account that the end of month settlement prices were adjusted to fair value, so you may see that the net change on the price contract does not take into account yesterday’s last trade, this happens every end of month, independent of where the future contracts settled the price is adjusted. My numbers are based on the real closing prices.

TODAY’S SESSION

For today’s trading roadmap and intraday updates, please read the authors bio.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

S&P

NASDAQ

RUSSELL

Resistance 4

809.00-811.00

1258.00-1260.00

434.90-436.00

Resistance 3

803.00-804.50

1247.00-1248.00

428.90-430.50

Resistance 2

798.75-800.00

1238.50-1240.00

424.30-425.60

Resistance 1

794.50-795.50

1232.00-1234.00

420.10-421.10

PIVOT

793.75

1235.75

417.70

Support 1

788.00-786.50

1221.00-1218.00

414.80-413.80

Support 2

782.00-780.50

1212.00-1210.00

410.50-408.60

Support 3

777.00-775.50

1200.00-1198.00

405.00-403.50

Support 4

771.00-770.00

1184.00-1182.00

400.10-398.80

S&P

NASDAQ

RUSSELL

FIBONACCI

FIBONACCI

FIBONACCI

904.75

1409.69

506.2

867.21

1351.34

477.6

844.21

1315.59

460.1

830.00

1293.50

449.3

821.21

1279.84

442.6

807.00

1257.75

431.8

798.21

1244.09

425.1

795.50

1239.88

423.1

792.79

1235.66

421.0

784.00

1222.00

414.3

769.79

1199.91

403.5

761.00

1186.25

396.8

746.79

1164.16

386.0

723.79

1128.41

368.5

686.25

1070.06

339.9

DAILY PROJECTIONS

S&P

NASDAQ

RUSSELL

AS DAILY HIGH

808.00

1260.00

433.30

AS DAILY LOW

784.00

1224.00

415.70

Support, Pivot and Resistance levels courtesy of Arturo Stern. He authors the E-mini Daily trading advisory which gives technical analysis on the major stock index futures contract. For more of his analysis go to www.theminitrade.com Arturo can be reached at arthur@theminitrade.com

Futures and options trading involve risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

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