Allendale Wrap-Up DATE \@ "M/d/yyyy" 3/23/2009
Corn: This market may be ready to take a short term breather. We still have the bullish factors from last week (potential inflation + Argentina on strike + outside money buying). Both the nearby contracts and the December rallied up to Thursday’s highs and fell back. Chart traders would call this a rejection. They will also note those charts have a gap, which may need to be filled just under today’s lows. Being realistic, we are still in a small bull market. Those factors noted above are still in force. Additionally, we will have an acreage report on Tuesday which may not be bearish corn.
Soybeans: With Argentina on strike, this week we may pick up a few extra export sales. The trade is excited about the prospects of reducing old crop ending stocks a little more in upcoming USDA reports. Last month, they were reduced to 185 million bushels. Just like corn, we can note today’s soybean close was well off the day’s highs. That could give us a short term break in the next couple of days leading into Tuesday’s Planted Acreage report.
Wheat: Mixed trading was seen today. There are forecasts for rain in the plains this week and no one wants to jump on board this market either way until those are actually seen. After the close, we received improvements in winter wheat ratings. Good to Excellent ratings for winter wheat in the plains were as follows: Kansas reported it increased 1% to 42%; Oklahoma ratings fell 1% to 24%; Texas increased +1% to 13%.
Rich Nelson is the Director of Research at Allendale, Inc. in McHenry, IL. Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA. www.allendale-inc.com
