US TREASURY FUTURES REPORT 03/03/2009
ECONOMIC DATA 03/04/2009: all times EST.
8:15 AM ADP EMPLOYMENT REPORT
10:00 AM: ISM NON-MFG INDEX (41.0)
10:30 AM EIA INVENTORY (OIL PRODUCTS)
2:00 PM BEIGE BOOK (PRE FOMC MEETING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS)
RESULTS FROM DATA 03/03/2009: PENDING HOME SALES INDEX (80.4 VS 85.1 EXP-FALL OF 7.7% M/M)
U.S. TREASURIES TRADE IN NARROW RANGE, TAKING CUES FROM EQUITY DIRECTION, SIGNALS OF HIGHER DEFICIT SPENDING TO COME.
U.S. Treasuries traded in a narrow range today, taking direction primarily from the inverse relationship with equities. Despite a report stating that a record number of investors in February added Treasuries to their portfolio, the market returned a portion of Monday’s gains on supply concerns. Testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner painted a similar picture in both of their congressional testimonies today. The picture was one of an ongoing recession that will likely need higher and longer periods of deficit stimulus funding than most optimistic views of the recession/recovery cycle.
This fear of the massive levels of debt perceived as necessary contained Treasuries in a relatively narrow range, even as equities failed to hold onto mid session rallies, falling to new lows though in a more orderly fashion than Monday’s anger driven collapse of equities. Look for Treasuries to maintain the pendulum swings between economic and supply woes for some time to come.
Technically, June Treasuries should continue to trade within a narrow channel defined by fundamental factors/inverse relationship with equities. Longer term downward momentum still appears to be setting up for a move down to 122.08, with initial support forming at the 120.16 level.
US DEBT FUTURES
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
CHANGE
US M9 (US 30 YRS)
125.085
125.270
123.295
124.155
-8/32nds
TY M9 (US 10 YRS)
121.200
121.230
120.280
121.005
-11/32nds
Prepared by Rich Roscelli & Paul Brittain.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities
