ECONOMIC DATA FOR FEB. 6, 2009
8:30 AM-US JANUARY NONFARM PAYROLL (-524K to -750K)
US UNEMPLOYMENT (7.5% 7.2% TO 7.6%)
AVER HR EARNINGS (0.2%)
AVERAGE WORKWEEK 33.3 HRS.
TREASURIES MOVE IN CHOPPY SESSION, MARKET RALLIES ON SHORT COVERING, FALLS ON MOVE TO EQUITIES, AWAITING DIRECTION FROM FRIDAY’S EMPLOYMENT DATA.
Treasuries traded in a narrow range on Thursday, taking a secondary role as its took cues from equities and economic data as the markets stayed relatively flat ahead of Fridays release of January’s non farm payroll and unemployment figures. Expectations are especially wide for this number as the markets ponder whether the impact of some of the largest overall job cuts in history will be fully reflected in this employment number. Treasuries rallied early in the session on a perceived foretelling of tomorrows data as weekly jobless numbers came in at 626,000, the highest numbers since the early 1980’s. The release of the data brought equities to their lows of the session and offered addition support to Treasuries which appeared to be in the midst of a short covering rally after several multi basis point drops and tests of key support levels.
Treasuries pulled back from session highs as equities shrugged off the surprisingly negative employment figures and returned to rally mode as technology stocks took the lead on perceived bargains in the wake of the sectors fall overnight from the disappointing earnings from tech bellwether Cisco Systems. By the end of the session the markets seemed to find a relative equilibrium point of short covering/profit taking ahead of the potential high levels of volatility which should be kicked off by tomorrow’s employment number and follow through from next week’s political maneuvering and vote on the U.S. stimulus package.
Technically, March 30-year futures have moved into a narrow channel that appears to be setting up for additional tests to the upside of near term resistance at 127.10, with the next level of significant support at 127.29. Support appears to have reset at 126.02, with the next significant level at 124.25.
US DEBT FUTURES
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
CHANGE
US H9 (US 30 YRS)
126.13
127.245
126.100
126.290
+8.5/32nds
TY H9 (US 10 YRS)
121.310
122.240
121.280
122.120
+8.5/32nds
Prepared by Rich Roscelli & Paul Brittain.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.
