Bad omen for Dow

A late day rally allowed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to close the day and month above the new Mendoza line of 8,000. However, the drop of 775 points, 8.84%, for the month is a bad omen as the January performance of the Dow has accurately predicted what it will do for the year 75% of the time according to Dow Jones. In the last 30 years that percentage is 86% and even though a couple of those anomalies occurred recently, such examples usually involve marginal moves for the month. This year the Dow had it worst January performance in its 113-year history in 2008.

 

You may want to remember that the next time someone tries to convince you the bottom is in.

About the Author
Daniel P. Collins

Daniel P. Collins

Managing Editor Daniel P. Collins has covered the managed money industry since he joined Futures in January 2001. In that capacity, he is primarily responsible for profiling professional trading advisors in our Trader Profile section as well as selecting the subjects for the annual "Hot New CTA s" and "Top Traders" features. Dan also is the key interviewer of the thought leaders and traders who have appeared in Futures cover stories. Dan has unique insight into the futures industry, having worked with some of its most influential people during his nearly 12 years on the trading floors of the Chicago Board of Trade and Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He received his bachelor's degree in journalism from Drake University in Iowa. dcollins@futuresmag.com

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