Corn: The midday weather update offered slightly more rain for central Argentina tonight. The increase is not a drought ending amount. The overall tone to Argentina is still net drying into the end of the week.
Soybeans: Though Argentina is forecast to see dryness return by the end of the week, in the near term a small amount of extra rain was put in tonight's forecast. The other factor we will note is China. This week is the start of the Lunar New Year. We should expect their buying to drop off this week. This Friday's weekly export sales report will still be bullish, as it covers last week's sales. However next week's sales report should take a hit.
Wheat: Argentina, the world's fifth largest wheat exporter, announced it was blocking any new wheat export permits. Their interest is in ensuring supplies for domestic use. Their 2008 crop was estimated at 10.5 million metric tonnes compared with 16.3 mmt in 2007. There was no word when the exports were blocked, how long it would remain in effect, or how many tonnes it would impact. Brazil, Argentina's main wheat customer, may turn to the US or Canada…Rich Nelson
Rich Nelson is the Director of Research at Allendale, Inc. in McHenry, IL. Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA. www.allendale-inc.com
