THE MINITRADER WISH TO ALL OF YOU A HAPPY CHRISTMAS
We remind you that service won’t be available next Thursday and Friday
Toyota firs ever operating loss, China cutting rates and Walgreens disappointing earnings result in a negative session but off the lows. Commercial mortgage defaults looms extending the waiting line for federal bailouts. Automakers fall sharply as the approved loans may dilute stock value.
ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Chain Deflator- Final
8:30 AM GDP- Final
10:00 AM Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM Michigan Sentiment- Rev.
10:00 AM New Home Sales
YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading on a sideways pattern during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 884.50 with some selling pressure, a test of 885.50 resulted in an early sell off that drove the index down to 876.50, just above the 875.75 Globex lows and on our support levels. The SP bounced back to 881.00 just to get sold once more to new intraday lows reaching 873.75 without showing any rebound attempt. After posting a small higher low at 874.50, the SP bounced to 878.75, tested once more 875.00 and bounced to 879.00 without any momentum. The failure to trade back above the 881.00 area resulted in additional weakness pushing the SP to new lows at 867.25 from where the index bounced to 872.25, moved down to 869.00 and bounced to 874.25, however the extremely light volumes made difficult the rally attempt to continue. As the light trading activity continued, the SP pushed lower testing the intraday 867.25 low. As the other indexes continued to make new lows, the SP finally gave up pushing lower to 859.00 where it found support. The SP bounced to 864.25 but failed to hold and moved lower printing new lows at 856.75. Another feeble bounce resulted in another selling opportunity as markets made new lows with the SP reaching 852.75, just three ticks above our updated downside objective from where the index finally rallied to 863.5 and then backed off a few points just to continue higher into the end of the session.
MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Monday’s session opened stable but selling pressure was seen during all the session, except for the late strong reversal. We have now three consecutive negative trading sessions, and as I have mentioned, countertrend moves last between 1-3 days, so if the way is up and this last three consecutive negative session are a first degree correction, the rally should resume today. This last rally has been struggling to continue its uptrend, the same has been seen for the sell off attempts, they have not been able to “kill” this holiday rally, BUT, markets were rejected during the last few days from strong resistance areas, 920.00 on the SP, 9000 on the Dow and 500.00 on the Russell. So in this bear trend, even if the indexes have been able to hold, in the long term, more overall weakness may be seen below those areas.
Yesterday’s late rebound, in particular in the Russell, keeps the door open for higher prices during the upcoming sessions, Of course all the time that yesterday’s lows hold. Yesterday was the first trading session that the last hour resulted in higher trading prices; the markets should be ready to move higher for our expected Santa Claus rally.
Volumes were light, but this is a normal condition for this time of the year, so it does not give us any clue; trading conditions are difficult under this circumstances, so if you trade, do it with a small position.
Today, we’ll get a few economic numbers, GDP, housing data and consumer sentiment, so expect this numbers to impact today’s trading session. I assume the numbers won’t be good, but if the indexes can hold the first part of the session, we could see as yesterday a late rebound, however if yesterday’s lows get broken, we could be on the way for the 820.00 area on the SP and we could forget about any Christmas rally.
TODAY’S SESSION
For today’s trading roadmap and intraday updates, please read the authors bio.
TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P
NASDAQ
RUSSELL
Resistance 4
896.50-898.00
1233.00-1236.00
494.90-496.00
Resistance 3
890.00-891.50
1224.00-1226.00
489.00-490.40
Resistance 2
879.00-881.00
1210.00-1212.00
483.40-485.50
Resistance 1
874.50-875.50
1202.00-1203.00
480.10-481.20
PIVOT
871.75
1196.50
474.50
Support 1
867.00-866.00
1192.00-1190.50
474.10-473.30
Support 2
862.00-860.50
1184.00-1182.00
470.10-468.20
Support 3
852.50-851.00
1169.00-1167.00
462.90-461.20
Support 4
844.00-842.00
1156.00-1155.00
456.70-455.80
S&P
NASDAQ
RUSSELL
FIBONACCI
FIBONACCI
FIBONACCI
954.20
1310.87
541.82
945.05
1298.13
534.18
930.25
1277.50
521.80
915.45
1256.87
509.42
906.30
1244.13
501.78
891.50
1223.50
489.40
876.70
1202.87
477.02
872.13
1196.50
473.20
867.55
1190.13
469.38
852.75
1169.50
457.00
837.95
1148.87
444.62
828.80
1136.13
436.98
814.00
1115.50
424.60
799.20
1094.87
412.22
790.05
1082.13
404.58
DAILY PROJECTIONS
S&P
NASDAQ
RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH
881.50
1210.25
483.30
AS DAILY LOW
842.00
1156.00
450.90
Support, Pivot and Resistance levels courtesy of Arturo Stern. He authors the E-mini Daily trading advisory which gives technical analysis on the major stock index futures contract. For more of his analysis go to www.theminitrade.com Arturo can be reached at arthur@theminitrade.com
Futures and options trading involve risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
