The Nasdaq Composite index has gained 14.6% over the last five trading days, the largest five-day gain ever in the month of November. The index closed on Monday at 1726.33 with a 0.3% gain on the day. The index is still in bearish trend territory, closing down below its 200-, 100- and 50-day averages.
Q: How has the Nasdaq Composite performed in the past when it has seen a 'very large' five-day percentage gain in the month of November?
A: According to the nine previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that COMP has shown a very strong bullish edge that peaks 13 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Monday, Nov. 3, 2008) is Thursday, Nov. 20, 2008.
COMP rallies in 89% of the cases (8 of 9) by an average of 3.6% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the one decline is 0.2%. The overall return of the nine cases is 3.2%, which, based on the close of COMP on the event date (1726.33), provides a target price of 1781.57.
If you'd like to explore this historical analysis further using our EventEdge analysis tool, click here.
Gibbons Burke is editor of MarketHistory.com.
