Q: Over the course of its history, how does SPX perform when an October Monday sees a move that is up 'big' during a Presidential Election year?
A: According to the nine previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that SPX has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 26 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Friday, Oct. 17, 2008) is Monday, Nov. 24, 2008. SPX rallies in 89% of the cases (8 of 9) by an average of 5.0% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the one decline is 1.0%. The overall return of the nine cases is 4.3%, which, based on the close of SPX on the event date (940.55), provides a target price of 980.99.
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Mr. Jay Pasch is a private futures and equities trader based in Minnesota. He may hold positions in the instruments mentioned in his trading ideas.
