Cocoa Futures (NBT.CC) were down 2.4% Thursday, after dropping 60 to close at 2451. CC crossed below the 200-day moving average and is still below the 13-week lowest low. We could see a brief technical bounce on what may be a longer-term bearish trend.
Q: What has happened in the past when Cocoa Futures drop below their 200-day moving average with the Employment Situation Report day occurring one day later, omitting any repeat occurrences within 10 trading days?
A: According to the 10 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that NBT.CC has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks two trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Thursday, 2 October 2008) is Monday, 6 October 2008.
NBT.CC rallies in 80% of the cases (8 of 10) by an average of 1.8% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the two declines is -0.5%. The overall return of the 10 cases is 1.3%, which, based on the close of NBT.CC on the event date (2451), provides a target price of 2483.
To view this idea more closely and even adjust its parameters, you can use our EventEdge® analysis tool by clicking here
Jeffrey Garceau is an analyst with MarketHistory.com.
