Japanese Government Bond Futures (TSE.JGB) have been all over the place recently, although volatility in the market as whole is the likely culprit. JGB had a trend day up Monday, opening in the low 20% of the day's range and closing in the highest 20%. JGB traded up $0.01 to close at $137.03. History shows plenty of evidence for bullish trends to continue.
Q: What has happened in the past when Japanese Government Bond Futures have a trend day up in the month of September, omitting any repeat occurrences within 10 trading days?
A: According to the 32 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that TSE.JGB has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 45 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Monday, Sept. 22, 2008) is Monday, Nov. 24, 2008. TSE.JGB rallies in 91% of the cases (29 of 32) by an average of 2% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the three declines is 1%. The overall return of the 32 cases is 1.7%, which, based on the close of TSE.JGB on the event date ($137.03), provides a target price of $139.36.
This idea was generated by our Nitro® scanner, along with many other useful queries. Also, the green arrows on the graph represent the T-Score, which is high due to the very high number of occurrences of this event. To view this idea in our EventEdge analysis tool and perhaps adjust its parameters, click here
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Jeffrey Garceau is an analyst with MarketHistory.com.
