Q: How has AIG responded to a 'very big' loss that is coupled with 'unusual volume'?
A: According to the 10 previous occurrences of this event omitting any repeat occurrences within 10 trading days, EventEdge® indicates that AIG has shown a very strong bearish edge that peaks 18 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bearish edge relative to the current event date (Friday, September 12, 2008) is Wednesday, October 8, 2008.
AIG declines in 90% of the cases (9 of 10) by an average of -6.3% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 1 rally is 1.3%. The overall return of the 10 cases is -5.5%, which, based on the close of AIG on the event date ($12.14), provides a target price of $11.47.
To see this in EventEdge® click here.
HYPERLINK "http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=mickey" Mickey Schoenhals is an analyst with www.Markethistory.com.
