Ten-Year Treasury Note Futures (CBT.TY) had its third straight day of positive trading Thursday. The TY market formed a 'trend day up' pattern, opening in the lower 20% of the days range, and actually closing at the high of the day. This trend day follows a longer up trend that has been in effect since late July; will it continue?
Q: What has happened in the past when, in September, the Ten-Year T-Note futures market forms a 'trend day up' to close at the high of the day, omitting any repeat occurrences within 10 trading days?
A: According to the 12 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that CBT.TY has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks six trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Thursday, Sept. 4, 2008) is Friday, Sept. 12, 2008.
CBT.TY rallies in 100% of the cases (12 of 12) by an average of 0.6% relative to the close on the event date. The overall return of the 12 cases is 0.6%, which, based on the close of CBT.TY on the event date (117-30), provides a target price of 118-20.
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Jeffrey Garceau is an analyst with MarketHistory.com.
