The S&P 500 index futures (CME.SP) gained 5.9 points, or 0.5% on Friday to close at 1,299.70 on a 'small range' day. Large specs are extremely long and small traders are short S&P 500 Index Futures (CME.SP) Also on Friday, S&P opened higher and traded above its 50-day moving average?
Q: What has happened in the past when, on a Friday, CME.SP opens up and is trading above its 50-day moving average, when Large Specs are extremely long and small traders are short, omitting any repeat occurrences within 10 trading days?
A: According to the 16 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that CME.SP has shown a very strong bullish edge that peaks 48 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Friday, August 15, 2008) is Thursday, Oct. 23, 2008.
CME.SP rallies in 100% of the cases (16 of 16) by an average of 5.2% relative to the close on the event date. The overall return of the 16 cases is 5.2%, which, based on the close of CME.SP on the event date (1299.7), provides a target price of 1367.28.
To view this idea in EventEdge® click here
Jeffrey Garceau is an analyst with MarketHistory.com.
