Q: How have Dollar Index futures reacted in the past when the market opens up 'big' on the same day the Consumer Price Index is reported to be higher than expected, omitting any repeat occurrences within 10 trading days of the event date?
A: According to the 6 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that NBT.DX has shown a very strong bullish edge that peaks 1 trading day after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Thursday, 14 August 2008) is Friday, 15 August 2008.
NBT.DX rallies in 100% of the cases (6 of 6) by an average of 0.4% relative to the close on the event date. The overall return of the 6 cases is 0.4%, which, based on the close of NBT.DX on the event date (76.835), provides a target price of 77.142.
Jeffrey Garceau is an analyst with MarketHistory.com.
