Sugar Futures (ICE U.S.SB) have rallied 'big' in each of the last three trading days and have rallied in six of the last seven days for a 16% gain crossing above its 200-day average on Thursday, closing at 13.93¢ per lb. The trend has been very bullish, and EventEdge indicates that it should continue in the current scenario.
Q: How has world sugar responded to three consecutive rallies with the final being 'big' and back to back 'large' five-day gains that help cross the commodity above its 200-day average?
A: According to the eight previous occurrences of this event omitting any repeat occurrences within 10 trading days, EventEdge indicates that the ICE world sugar contract has shown a very strong bullish edge that peaks 31 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Thursday, July 31, 2008) is Monday, Sept. 15, 2008.
SB rallies in 100% of the cases (8 of 8) by an average of 13.9% relative to the close on the event date. The overall return of the eight cases is 13.9%, which, based on the close on the event date (13.93¢), provides a target price of 15.87¢.
To see this in EventEdge® click here.
Mickey Schoenhals is an analyst with Markethistory.com.
