Five Year Note Futures (CBT.FV) rallied a 'very big' 0.8% on Thursday for only the second rally in the last seven days. After hitting a bottom in the market in mid-June, CBT.FV rallied very strongly over the next few weeks before the most recent dip. Will CBT.FV return to its bull run?
Q: How has CBT.FV responded to a 'very big' rally in the third quarter while closing above its 200-day average?
A: According to the 22 previous occurrences of this event omitting any repeat occurrences within 10 trading days, EventEdge indicates that CBT.FV has shown a somewhat bullish edge that peaks 17 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Thursday July 24, 2008) is Monday August 18, 2008.
CBT.FV rallies in 77% of the cases (17 of 22) by an average of 1.1% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the five declines is 0.3%. The overall return of the 22 cases is 0.8%, which, based on the close of CBT.FV on the event date (110-25), provides a target price of 111-22.
To see this in EventEdge® click here.
Mickey Schoenhals is an analyst with Markethistory.com.
