Q: How has CME.LC performed in the past after it records a 'very big' decline on a Monday during the third quarter?
A: According to the nine previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that CME.LC has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 14 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Monday July 14, 2008) is Friday, August 1, 2008.
CME.LC rallies in 100% of the cases (9 of 9) by an average of 4.0% relative to the close on the event date. Which, based on the close of CME.LC on the event date (99.125¢), provides a target price of 103.09¢.
The second graph below depicts how, more specifically, the front month August contract (LCQ) performs after the same event. In this case, there are only six previous occurrences. LCQ peaks one trading day later, rallying 100% of the time by an average of 0.6%, providing a target price of 99.72¢.
To view the first graph in our EventEdge® analysis tool click here.
Ronish Patel is an analyst with MarketHistory.com.Mickey Schoenhals is an analyst with Markethistory.com.
