Australian Dollar Futures (CME.AD) have opened at its intra-day low on three of the last five trading days, but on Wednesday after doing so, they also closed at its high. AD finished the day with a 'big' 1.2% gain to close at .9544. This comes after AD had gapped down on the two previous days, where the high of the day was lower than the previous days low price. Will Wednesday's bullish price action bring more rallies?
Q: How has CME.AD performed in the past, omitting repeat occurrences within 10 trading days, when it records a gain of more than 0.5%, while opening at its low and closing at its high, one day after gapping down?
A: According to the nine previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that CME.AD has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 28 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Wednesday, July 2, 2008) is Tuesday, August 12, 2008.
CME.AD rallies in 100% of the cases (9 of 9) by an average of 3.0% relative to the close on the event date. Which, based on the close of CME.AD on the event date (.9544), provides a target price of .9830.
If you would like to see more details of this historical edge, go to www.markethistory.com
Ronish Patel is an analyst with MarketHistory.com.
