From March to mid-June, 10-year note futures have plummeted from 120-01 to 111-09. “They have effectively been trading two-year and 10-year notes for mortgage backed securities,” says Addison Wiggin, of investment research firm Agora Financial, referring to the Term Auction Facilities offered by the Fed since December. “People selling the dollar is an indication they don’t think this is a good move,” he says.
The floor is in, opines William Adams, managing director JKV Global. In July he says support is 111-17, resistance is 114-07.
“Every central banker out there, including Bernanke, has come out and said they are more concerned about inflation than growth slowing,” says Jack Broz, publisher of the Marlin Letter. “When the market is showing you weakness, you’ve got to find a way to go with it.” He says support is at 108-08 to 109-08. “This market is being sold.”
Trader Harold Lavender says September 10-year note futures will cycle between 111-16 and 114-00. “Instead of some philosophical conversation about where rates could or should be, it is a creature of money flow. If the stock market goes down, people pull their money out and throw it into Treasuries. And when the market starts going up, they pull it out of Treasuries and put it into the stock market.”
