Ten Year Treasury-note futures (CBT.TY) have seen two very different days the last two trading days, as Friday's 'big' 'trend day' up was followed by Tuesday's 'big' 'trend day' down. The market is currently trading just above some strong lines of resistance: its 50-day low, set a few days ago, and highs from December. To compliment, EventEdge shows historically bullish behavior in this current scenario.
Q: How has CBT.TY responded to a 'trend day' up 'big' followed by a 'trend day' down 'big' that closes below its 200-day moving average?
A: According to the 17 previous occurrences of this event omitting any repeat occurrences within 10 trading days, EventEdge indicates that CBT.TY has shown a somewhat bullish edge that peaks 78 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Tuesday, May 27, 2008) is Tuesday, September 16, 2008.
CBT.TY rallies in 88% of the cases (15 of 17) by an average of 3.7% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the two declines is 1.9%. The overall return of the 17 cases is 3.1%, which, based on the close of CBT.TY on the event date (114-26), provides a target price of 118-12.
To see this in EventEdge® click here.
HYPERLINK "http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=mickey" Mickey Schoenhals is an analyst with Markethistory.com.
