Crude oil has been a conundrum of late, as seemingly high inventories are ignored by the market in lieu of geopolitical concerns and perhaps simply a feeling of inevitability that crude will go higher. What has become clearer is crude oil’s relationship with the U.S. dollar. It has shown near perfect correlation to the dollar, similar to gold. Analyst Thomas Hartmann said the greatest downside risk didn’t come from expanding inventories but to a dollar recovery. He was on the money with his $100 support level as crude briefly dipped below the century mark but never closed below it. But the market does pay attention to inventory levels when they drop, as lower than expected inventories cause crude to spike to new all time high above $110 last week. Tim Evans also saw bearish fundamentals and crude being propped up by the weak dollar. A situation he referred to as dangerous.