Natural Gas Futures (NYM.NG) have gained over 12% with seven consecutive rallies to return to its highs above $10 per mmBtu closing Monday at $10.10. With this quick move, NYM.NG has seen its five-day average cross above its 20-day average, and history shows that this bullish momentum is to continue when this event occurs in the first quarter.
Q: How has NYM.NG responded to three consecutive rallies that see the five-day average cross above the 20-day average when the date is in the first quarter?
A: According to the 12 previous occurrences of this event omitting any repeat occurrences within 10 trading days, EventEdge® indicates that NYM.NG has shown a somewhat bullish edge that peaks 20 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Monday, March 31, 2008) is Monday, April 28, 2008.
NYM.NG rallies in 83% of the cases (10 of 12) by an average of 11.1% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the two declines is 6.2%. The overall return of the 12 cases is 8.2%, which, based on the close of NYM.NG on the event date ($10.10), provides a target price of $10.929.
If you would like to see more details of this historical edge, go to www.markethistory.com
To see this in EventEdge® click here.
HYPERLINK "http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=mickey" Mickey Schoenhals is an analyst with Markethistory.com.
