British Pound Futures (CME.BP) saw an 'unusual' amount of volume on Wednesday's 0.3% rally as it was more than four times the average volume in the last 20 days. The market has come out of the holidays on a mission as it has posted three consecutive rallies totaling 1.1% to bring the market to 199.29. The 'unusual volume rally' has quite a bullish affect on the market over the following 45 trading days that may push the pound sterling well over 200.
Q: How has CME.BP responded to an 'unusual volume rally'?
A: According to the 14 previous occurrences of this event omitting any repeat occurrences within 45 trading days, EventEdge® indicates that CME.BP has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 42 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Wednesday, March 26, 2008) is Friday, May 23, 2008.
CME.BP rallies in 93% of the cases (13 of 14) by an average of 2.3% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the one decline is 2.5%. The overall return of the 14 cases is 1.9%, which, based on the close of CME.BP on the event date (199.29), provides a target price of 203.08.
If you would like to see more details of this historical edge, go to www.markethistory.com
HYPERLINK "http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=mickey" Mickey Schoenhals is an analyst with Markethistory.com.
Related Ideas:
HYPERLINK "http://www.markethistory.com/content/content.html/13728.html" \o "British Pound Futures - Off to a Good Start Redux" \t "_top" British Pound Futures - Off to a Good Start Redux - March 19, 2008
