The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and some better than expected earnings shoot the S&P 500 Index (SPX) up +4.24% on Tuesday, March 18, 2008. The FMOC cut rates by 0.75%. Will the bull stay for spring?
Q: What is the historical performance of S&P 500 Index (SPX) over the next 30 trading days when the SPX is up more than 1.5% on the same day the FOMC cuts rates?
A: According to the 12 previous occurrences of this event, SPX has shown a very strong bullish edge that peaks 22 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Tuesday, March, 18, 2008) is Friday, 18 April 2008.
SPX rallies in 100% of the cases (12 of 12) by an average of 4.9% relative to the close on the event date. The overall return of the 12 cases is 4.9%, which, based on the close of SPX on the event date (1330.74), provides a target price of 1395.95 on Friday, 18 April 2008.
If you would like to see more details of this historical edge, go to www.markethistory.com
Travis Nadelhoffer is an analyst with MarketHistory.com and an account representative with Logical Information Machines.
