Sugar futures (SB) traded at ICE Futures U.S. (formerly New York Board of Trade) have rallied up 'big' and 'very big' the last two days to trade at new 13-week highs. The 8.54% two-day rally pushed the market above its upper Bollinger band with a close of 12.45¢ per lb. on Thursday. When sugar has experienced this kind of action before, it has gone on to post bullish results over the coming weeks.
Q: How has sugar responded to back to back 'big' gains that trade for new 13-week highs and cross above the upper Bollinger band today?
A: According to the 10 previous occurrences of this event omitting any repeat occurrences within 10 trading days, EventEdge indicates that has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 12 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the most recent occurrence of the event (Thursday, Jan. 17, 2008) is Tuesday, Feb. 5, 2008.
Sugar rallies in 100% of the cases (10 of 10) by an average of 15.0% relative to the close on the event date. The overall return of the 10 cases is 15.0%, which, based on the close on the event date (12.45¢), provides a target price of 14.32¢.
If you would like to see more details of this historical edge, go to www.markethistory.com
Note there is a bearish story on Sugar Futures this morning as well. To see the story, click on the link below.
Mickey Schoenhals is an analyst with Markethistory.com.
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Sugar Futures - Sweet Tooth Bears - January 18, 2008
