Q: How have WTI crude oil futures performed in the past during the first quarter of the year when the market has seen a 'big' one-day decline on a day when the average price over the last five days crosses below the average price over the last 20 days?
A: According to the eight previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that Nymex WTI has shown a very strong bullish edge that peaks 49 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Tuesday, Jan. 15, 2008) is Thursday, Mar. 27, 2008. Crude rallies in 100% of the cases (8 of 8) by an average of 17.5% relative to the close on the event date. The overall return of the eight cases is 17.5%, which, based on the close on the event date ($91.90), provides a target price of $107.98.
If you would like to see more details of this historical edge, go to www.markethistory.com
Gibbons Burke is editor of MarketHistory.com.
Related Ideas:
Crude Oil Futures - Don't Be Fooled! - January 14, 2008
