Crude Oil took breather in its relentless charge as the market declined a 'very big' 3.4%, giving some relief to bears retracing back near $90 per barrel. This move looks to be just temporary, and crude is primed to regain the losses and push higher.
Q: How has crude oil responded following a ‘very big’ loss after three consecutive days of breaking new 20-day highs?
A: According to the eight previous occurrences of this event, omitting any repeat occurrences within 10 trading days, EventEdge indicates that the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil contract has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 25 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the most recent occurrence of the event (Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2007) is Wednesday, Dec. 5, 2007.
Nymex’s crude contract rallies in 100% of the cases by an average of 11.9% relative to the close on the event date. The overall return of the eight cases is 11.9%, which, based on the close on the event date of $90.38 provides a target of $101.14.
If you would like to see more details of this historical edge, go to www.markethistory.com
HYPERLINK "http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=mickey" Mickey Schoenhals is an analyst with Markethistory.com.
