This story ran originally in the Opalesque Technical Research Briefing
Near Term Trend: Negative
Wednesday’s Close: 1468.50 (+ 18.20)
UPDATE: The Index is at its highest point since August 13, and is currently trading just above the trend line (green), which dates back one- year. As we stated last weekend, a continued move higher, toward 1480.00 could come under additional selling pressure. As of Wednesday, the market came within 11 points of that region. NOTE: The Index has rallied nearly 100 points from the low on August 16.
Intermediate Trend (3 Months):
Neutral
Wednesday’s Close: $69.26 (- 31 cents)
UPDATE: Since we identified the Bull Trap, four weeks ago, the market fell exactly $10.00 / barrel, as of Wednesday. We continued to state, a move down toward $68.50 was still possible, and that objective was basically met today. Over the weekend, we thought a range appeared to be set, between $75.00 & $69.00 ($69.00 - represented by support at the 21- week M.A. line). As of Wednesday, that particular support region was being tested.
Near Term Trend: Negative
Wednesday’s Close: $668.70 (+2.5)
UPDATE: The sharp break lower, of $23.00, last week, brought the market clearly below triangle support in one of the most volatile days Gold has witnessed this year. As we stated over the weekend, we believe the $676.00- $680.00 region will act as key resistance against any attempts for the December contract to rally. Currently, the contract is attempting to test resistance at the 21- day moving average line
Near Term Trend: Positive
Wednesday’s Close: 108’27 (- 7.5) Yield =
UPDATE: Overall, the slope of the moving positive, and any continued downside pressure will only add to support in the price of bonds. Yields have dropped nearly 60 basis points eight weeks. Currently the market continues to consolidate highest point since March. Key support in contract is currently 107’16, as this market may a point of a slight price retrace downward.
Intermediate Term Trend: Negative
Wednesday’s Close: $11.565 (+ 5.5 cents)
UPDATE: Once the market gaped lower, on August 9, and settled under the triangle support line, it has not looked back. Last Thursday’s drop of nearly $1.32 was one of the widest ranging days for the metal in a very long time. Key resistance stands at the $12.60 region, as the market cools off some of its volatility, and presently consolidates in this region around $11.50.
Gregory J. Troccoli
Managing Director
Bear Stearns Asset Management
