In early May the Dow Jones reached an all-time high of 13,362.87 after posting gains in 24 of the previous 27 trading days. The last time the Dow was this hot was in 1927.
“It’s going to continue to hit all-time records,” says Robert Fuhrmann, analyst for MyFuturesOnline.com.
“So long as the Fed prints more money and the dollar stays soft, we will continue to see new highs over the next six months.” Fuhrmann says support is at 13,000, which he sees as a buying opportunity.
“The market has priced in all the good news available,” says Carley Garner, senior analyst at Alaron Las Vegas. “We had a run up in anticipation of earnings, and the market has priced in a Fed funds rate hike by October.” She expects a summer pull- back based on low liquidity and a low of 12,700.
John Rawlins, developer of the Cycle Projection Oscillator, which determines extreme overbought or oversold conditions, is a little more alarmed. “We are at a climax in terms of my program. This is as extreme as the Dow has ever been.”
He adds the current situation is similar to the extremes reached in late 2002. “We had a composite of cycles turning up. We have the opposite now.” He says his measures indicate a significant top in the Dow and sees support at 11,700. “We are very vulnerable right now.”