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Bonds “US” (Mar)
Coverage for February 28
A flight-to-quality triggered a gap up at Tuesday's open. The pullback limit held through the morning, and further stock market and $USD losses helped send bonds sharply higher. Significant resistance was touched at Tuesday's 113'16 high, and a close under 113'06 would signal that momentum had reversed down. One caveat: Continued stock market losses don't mean more flight-to-quality, since most of the traders that use the bond market for this purpose have already done so, and more stock market selling would reflect a larger mix of retail sellers.
(Basis Mar) Short under 113'06 for 112'08 and 111'12 targets, 113'10 stop
Crude Oil “CL” – mini “QM” – (Apr)
Coverage for February 28
Surprisingly weak pricing overnight, despite obviously bullish conditions except for growing economic concerns, triggered the open's gap down to new lows for the week. The market immediately reversed up into a morning-long rally to new relative highs. This might prove to be problematic for bulls, since the open's gap will need to be retested eventually. In fact, after the noon hour's dip back to prior highs as support, a retest of the morning's high fell back to Monday's close. And lower. There's no argument for entering long without another new high.
(Basis Mar) Long above 58'60 (met 2/16) for62'85 and 65'65 targets,61'25 stop
Gold “GC” – mini “YG” – (Apr)
Coverage for February 28
The short-entry parameter was tested by a steep overnight drop Tuesday, extending lower to within 2 dollars of the short-parameter's initial target. But a consolidation through late-morning broke sharply higher, filling the gap back to Monday's close and then some. The session still closed negative, which itself was bearish, but not enough to fulfill the short-entry parameter which has been adjusted higher.
(Basis Apr) Short under 685'50 for675'00 and 667'00 targets, 688'50 stop PREVIOUSLY... (Basis Apr) Short under 667'00 (2/20) for650'00 and 632'50 targets, 664'50 stop (met 2/21)
Dollar “DX” (Mar)
Coverage for February 28
Tuesday's open gapped down and extended lower intraday. The gap back to Monday's close will want to be filled, but there is no requirement to do so next.
(Basis Dec) Sell under 84'90 (met 11/10) for83'50 (met 11/24) and 83'05 (met 11/28) targets, 82'75 stop (met 12/8)
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