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Bonds “US” (Mar)
Coverage for January 31
Tuesday's open gapped up but didn't attack the past two days highs, let alone touch them. There wasn't any reaction to economic data after the open, as anxiousness ahead of FOMC paralyzed price action. An inside day that starts by gapping up from trend lows tends only to be noise, and doesn't tend to reverse the prevailing trend.
(Basis Dec) Short under 113'00 (met 11/2) for 111'28 (met 11/3) and 111'12 and 110'26 targets, 111'24 stop (met 11/7)
Crude Oil “CL” – mini “QM” – (Mar)
Coverage for January 31
Monday's lows had filled the outstanding gap back to Thursday's close, neutralizing its magnetic attraction, but without reinstating any new buy signal. Tuesday's open gapped up above the pullback limit that Thursday's close had failed to hold, and that Friday's open had gapped above. This time, it stuck, and the balance of the session trended up more than 3 dollars to new recovery highs testing 57'00. Pullbacks should be extremely short and shallow to avoid a retest of 55'50, and to first test 59'00.
(Basis Jan) Long above 60'25 (met 11/28) for63'35 (met 11/30) and 65'65 targets,62'50 stop (met 12/4)
Gold “GC” – mini “YG” – (Feb)
Coverage for January 31
The consolidation still hadn't ended Tuesday afternoon, so it's difficult to categorize it as being brief. Now any effort to resume the rally is likely only to be a retest of last week's high.
(Basis Dec) Long above 611'50 (met 11/1) for628'00 (met 11/2) and 641'00 (met 11/27) targets, 630'00 stop (met again 11/13)
Dollar “DX” (Mar)
Coverage for January 31
Still no pullback underway, let alone completed, and Wednesday's FOMC news is just ahead. The extended three-week narrow trading range has become likely to break sharply in one direction, and to likely reverse in the opposite direction for a more substantial move.
(Basis Dec) Sell under 84'90 (met 11/10) for83'50 (met 11/24) and 83'05 (met 11/28) targets, 82'75 stop (met 12/8)
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