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Bonds "US" (Dec)
Coverage for Oct. 25
The one pattern that would indicate a low has printed required a close back above 110'08 without delay. The bounce limit was touched by mid-morning, but the session only ranged narrowly around Monday's close with Wednesday's FOMC news inhibiting volatility. The decline's momentum remains intact and next targeting 109'00, but with an outstanding gap back to Friday's 110'20 close, any attempt to resume the decline would need to be forceful.
(Basis Dec) Short above 110'28 (9/13) or under 110'06 for
109'16 and 108'08 targets,
110'26 stop (met 9/19)
Crude Oil "CL" - mini "QM" - (Dec)
Coverage for Oct. 25
Monday's break to new lows did not get any sponsorship Tuesday. Weaker prices overnight were overcome by a morning-long rally back to Monday's highs. A close above 59'50 was prevented by deterioration among MACD and RSI, but its resistance was chipped away at. Regardless, a second consecutive new low was avoided, and prior lows were immediately recovered on a closing basis, so there is strong potential (again) that a bottom is forming. That said, momentum still would not be signaled as reversing up unless/until 60'75-61'25 were recovered on a closing basis, and a test of 58'50-58'75 is needed to complete the low.
(Basis Nov) Long above 60'75 (met 10/5) for
65'50 and 68'50 targets,
59'50 stop (met 10/10)
PREVIOUSLY... (Basis Nov) Long under 62'00 (9/29) for
65'50 and 68'50 targets,
61'50 stop (met 10/2)
Gold "GC" - mini "YG" - (Dec)
Coverage for Oct. 25
Generally lower prices overnight extended lower to fill the outstanding gap near 580'00 - and then some, back to 576'00 - where an oversold bounce became likely. Although the bounce did develop, reversing into positive territory, this should be enough to all but assure new lows. A break under 581'50 would resume the decline and a close under 575'00 would accelerate the decline's pace.
(Basis Dec) Long from under 584'50 (9/14) for
602'00 (met 9/27) and 620'00 targets,
603'00 stop (met 10/3?)
Dollar "DX" (Dec)
Coverage for Oct. 25
A higher high at Tuesday's open was quickly rejected by a spike down under Monday's lows. The bottom held 86'25-86'30 as support to avoid invalidating the rally's resumption and resuming the decline back to the outstanding gaps at ~85'40 and ~84'95. But a close above 86'75 is still needed to signal that a new rally leg is underway.
(Basis Dec) Long above 85'00 (9/7) for
86'30 (10/06) and 86'75 (10/11) targets,
85'35 stop (met 9/21)
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