“We have a complacent market,” says Ralph D. Preston III of Heritage West Financial. But threats remain and by mid November he expects the Bush administration to hold Iran accountable for advancing their nuclear program, pushing prices higher. He picks a low of $55 per barrel and a high of $63 for the month.
“This has been a free fall,” says Phil Flynn, VP and senior market analyst at Alaron, but he warns that part of the correction is seasonal. He points out that the market collapsed last year just after Hurricane Katrina, plummeting to $57.32 from $70.85. “Dollar wise, this is one of the biggest ones, but percentage wise, I’m not sure it is.” Crude ran up to $39.99 in February 2003 only to fall to $25.04 by April. And in October 2004, we hit $55.67, only to fall to $40.25 in December.
However, Flynn warns that the move may not be through.
“If the economy slows and demand slows, then we could see oil in the mid $40s,” he says, but a low of $55 and a $65 high is more likely.
