AvidTrader.com covers a wide variety of futures markets each session throughout the day. Today's free look at S&Ps is below.
BIG THREE (the most relevant items influencing S&Ps near-term price action)
Who will blink first?
The longer that Wednesday's failure to hold new highs also fails to trigger a decline, the more likely that buyers will make another run at Monday's prior high. Four probes of the SPX 1362.50-1364.50 (ESz 1368'00-1370'00) area as support Thursday failed to extend down. The last probe during Thursday's noon hour even recovered from a test of uptrending support off of Tuesday's low.
Did buyers already blink?
S&Ps did break higher, but not until Thursday's final minutes, and it was retraced entirely. If that was the false break, then it should be rejected at Friday's open by gapping down under Friday afternoon's lows in the SPX 1365 (ESz 1372'00) area - coinciding with uptrending support. The break wasn't impressive, never reaching Thursday's highs, so its rejection alone wouldn't be very impressive either. Thursday's internals were accumulative again, as 12% more NYSE up volume than down volume produced 48% more advancing issues than decliners, so there still is some obligation to reward Thursday's buyers for their relative productivity.
No news is no good news
Actually, only economic reports are taking the day off Friday. Meanwhile, the quarterly earnings onslaught continues. But unlike economic news that tends to reveal a trend, company-specific earnings news can bounce back and forth between extremes. GOOG's reaction (+30 after the close) helps to grease the way for initially higher indexes, but it also makes the market more vulnerable to negative news by default.
FRIDAY'S OPENING TRADING PLAN
This being a Friday, any trending signaled at the opening sequence would be likely to persist well through the noon hour. Similarly, a no-bias signal would make trending difficult through the close. As for the failure of a bias signal - for instance, opening strong but pulling back too far too soon - the balance of the session would be likely to trend sharply. This would be more difficult for a failed rally, as a lot of support has been created in the consolidation range since Wednesday's opening failure. But if broken as a failed opening rally would suggest, the week's lows would offer little support upon being retested.
UP: SPX 1368.25 (ESz 1375'25)
Target: SPX 1371.75 (ESz 1378'75)
Down: SPX 1364 (ESz 1371'00)
Target: SPX 1359 (ESz 1364'00)
AvidTrader.com covers a wide variety of futures markets each session, throughout the day. Today's free look is below. Try all daily research in real-time without interruption for two weeks free by clicking here now.
THE CONTENTS OF THIS MESSAGE AND ANY ATTACHMENTS THERETO ARE CONSIDERED COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL OF THE SENDER, AND NOT FOR REPRINTING, RESENDING OR PUBLICATION UNLESS SPECIFICALLY AUTHORIZED HEREIN.
(Please note: The information contained on Avid is for informational purposes only. Aggressive trading strategies call for aggressive trading tactics such as well-defined entry and exit points, prudent money management and close monitoring of any open positions. The intellectual and emotional stimulation of fast-paced trading can be addictive, profitable or not.)
