Very much like yesterday's session, cotton prices pretty much completed the day's range in the first 15 minutes of trading. What does that tell you? Exports were undistinguished, but what was to be expected. As such, there isn't much to report. The high was made when locals tried to push prices up early, but found some light trade selling. So, they tried the downside with December getting another push below 5500. But 5485 held and was the low.
Options saw 200 Dec 60 calls bought early, then 300 Dec 60/65 call spreads get bought between 65 and 60. And 1,000 March 70 calls were acquired in separate 500 block orders.
Look for the range to continue between 5400 and 5600, (+/-50 points) basis December. It is likely that should 5470 support give way, another test of 5400-5370 might be in store. If that gives way, look out below for 5200. Since values have been successful at holding declines, a more thorough test of the 5600 level may be next in store.
I'm very interested in hearing your opinions and expectations about yields from these new seed strains. They are dealing with more stress this year than in their limited past, so I welcome comments, especially from you growers. Please if anyone has some comments please pass them along.
The Dec/March spread traded between 320 and 335. Volume is getting even lighter than we have been seeing, which hopefully won't last.
Moving Averages
December (5513)
March (5853)
Options Month
Implied Volatility
9 Day
54.99
58.26
October
23.00%
18 Day
55.78
58.82
November
23.50%
40 Day
54.75
57.71
December
25.25%
100/200 Day
55.80
58.34
March
24.75%
57.08
n/a
Futures
Calls
Puts
May
24.00%
4,000
3,400
400
July
23.00%
Jurgens H. Bauerjurgensb@gmail.com (212) 748-1388 trading floor(973) 652-4694 mobile(212) 742-5284 fax
